Strategies, a starter
Tight games
Under 2.5 goals when both teams’ recent matches have mostly had two or fewer.
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Won
54in every 100
Backing every match: 49. From 366 past bets.
Against the market
−2.9points
Within what luck explains: it hasn’t clearly beaten the bookmakers.
This week
1bet
In the next 7 days. See them below.
Since it was saved
3bets
1 won, 2 lost, since 19 Oct 2026.
What the numbers say
- Over 3 seasons this would have found 366 bets, and 196 won: 54 in every 100.
- Backing under 2.5 goals in every match won 49 in every 100, so its conditions picked better than backing everything.
- Against the market it did 3 points worse, within what luck alone could explain: it hasn’t clearly beaten the bookmakers.
From past seasons, using only what was known before each kickoff. Past results don’t make future ones more likely.
This week
The bets it finds in matches over the next 7 days, from the stats as they stand now.
Best odds
2.50
William Hill
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Real Betis v Málaga, Sat 31 Oct, 17:30
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How it did over past seasons
Using only what was known before each match, up to when it was saved.
366 bets from 2,923 played matches between 9 Aug 2024 and 19 Oct 2026: 196 won, 170 lost.
Break-even odds 1.87: at this win rate, backing it at those odds would neither win nor lose.
Against the market
−2.9 points: these bets won 51.7%, where the fair odds at kickoff gave them 54.7%. From 317 bets with odds before kickoff.
| Season | Bets | Won | Won, of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 197 | 117 | 59.4% |
| 2025-26 | 158 | 73 | 46.2% |
| 2026-27 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% (few) |
This shows how these conditions would have done in past matches, using only what was known before each kickoff. It isn’t a prediction, and past results don’t make future ones more likely.
Since it was saved
The bets it has found since it was saved, each recorded before kickoff and never changed.
3 bets since it was saved on 19 Oct 2026: 1 won, 2 lost.
Too few to judge: 3 settled, under the 30 it takes. Over the same stretch, backing under 2.5 goals in every match won 54.3%. Against the market: too few to judge, 3 with fair odds at kickoff.
- Sun 25 Oct, 16:30Sunderland 0-0 Leeds UnitedSun 25 Oct, 16:30. Recorded Sun 25 Oct, 13:30. Over 2.5 goals: Sunderland 40%, Leeds United 30%. Best odds then 1.73.Won
- Sun 25 Oct, 14:00Manchester United 0-3 AFC BournemouthSun 25 Oct, 14:00. Recorded Sun 25 Oct, 11:00. Over 2.5 goals: Manchester United 40%, AFC Bournemouth 40%. Best odds then 2.17.Lost
- Sun 25 Oct, 13:00Athletic Club 4-0 GetafeSun 25 Oct, 13:00. Recorded Sun 25 Oct, 10:00. Over 2.5 goals: Athletic Club 40%, Getafe 20%. Best odds then 1.70.Lost
Kept apart from how it did over past seasons. Changing what it looks for starts a fresh record from then on.
Its latest bets
The most recent bets from its past-seasons test, with what each condition read before kickoff.
- 17 Oct 2026Fulham 1–0 Hull CityOver 2.5 goals: Fulham 40%, Hull City 40%Won
- 20 Sept 2026Getafe 1–0 MálagaOver 2.5 goals: Getafe 20%, Málaga 33%Won
- 19 Sept 2026Athletic Club 0–0 Deportivo AlavésOver 2.5 goals: Athletic Club 40%, Deportivo Alavés 40%Won
- 13 Sept 2026Celta de Vigo 1–1 MálagaOver 2.5 goals: Celta de Vigo 30%, Málaga 25%Won
- 7 Sept 2026Getafe 1–1 Celta de VigoOver 2.5 goals: Getafe 20%, Celta de Vigo 40%Won
- 26 Aug 2026Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadOver 2.5 goals: Real Madrid 40%, Real Sociedad 40%Lost
- 22 Aug 2026Espanyol 1–2 Real MadridOver 2.5 goals: Espanyol 40%, Real Madrid 40%Lost
- 22 Aug 2026Birmingham City 2–2 Bristol CityOver 2.5 goals: Birmingham City 30%, Bristol City 40%Lost
- 15 Aug 2026Sevilla 2–1 Rayo VallecanoOver 2.5 goals: Sevilla 40%, Rayo Vallecano 30%Lost
- 15 Aug 2026Bristol City 0–2 MillwallOver 2.5 goals: Bristol City 40%, Millwall 30%Won
- 15 Aug 2026Norwich City 1–2 West Bromwich AlbionOver 2.5 goals: Norwich City 40%, West Bromwich Albion 40%Lost
- 14 May 2026Valencia 1–1 Rayo VallecanoOver 2.5 goals: Valencia 30%, Rayo Vallecano 30%Won