Strategies, a starter
Strong at home, poor away
A home win when the home team has been strong at home and the away team weak on the road.
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Won
61in every 100
Backing every match: 44. From 299 past bets.
Against the market
+0.6points
Within what luck explains: it hasn’t clearly beaten the bookmakers.
This week
3bets
In the next 7 days. See them below.
Since it was saved
4bets
2 won, 2 lost, since 19 Oct 2026.
What the numbers say
- Over 3 seasons this would have found 299 bets, and 183 won: 61 in every 100.
- Backing the home win in every match won 44 in every 100, so its conditions picked better than backing everything.
- Against the market it did 0.6 points better, within what luck alone could explain: it hasn’t clearly beaten the bookmakers.
From past seasons, using only what was known before each kickoff. Past results don’t make future ones more likely.
This week
The bets it finds in matches over the next 7 days, from the stats as they stand now.
Sat 31 Oct, 15:00, Championship
MiddlesbroughvCharlton AthleticWhy: Points per game: Middlesbrough 2.1, Charlton Athletic 0.8
Best odds
1.31
Matchbook
Below fairFair odds
1.38
73% chance
Best odds
1.40
Smarkets
Below fairFair odds
1.48
67% chance
Sat 31 Oct, 20:00, La Liga
FC BarcelonavDeportivo AlavésWhy: Points per game: FC Barcelona 2.7, Deportivo Alavés 1
Best odds
1.15
Betway
Below fairFair odds
1.19
84% chance
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How it did over past seasons
Using only what was known before each match, up to when it was saved.
299 bets from 2,923 played matches between 9 Aug 2024 and 19 Oct 2026: 183 won, 115 lost, 1 void.
Break-even odds 1.63: at this win rate, backing it at those odds would neither win nor lose.
Against the market
+0.6 points: these bets won 61.4%, where the fair odds at kickoff gave them 60.8%. From 298 bets with odds before kickoff.
| Season | Bets | Won | Won, of 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 155 | 91 | 58.7% |
| 2025-26 | 127 | 82 | 64.6% |
| 2026-27 | 17 | 10 | 62.5% (few) |
This shows how these conditions would have done in past matches, using only what was known before each kickoff. It isn’t a prediction, and past results don’t make future ones more likely.
Since it was saved
The bets it has found since it was saved, each recorded before kickoff and never changed.
4 bets since it was saved on 19 Oct 2026: 2 won, 2 lost.
Too few to judge: 4 settled, under the 30 it takes. Over the same stretch, backing home win in every match won 42.9%. Against the market: too few to judge, 4 with fair odds at kickoff.
- Sat 24 Oct, 15:15Racing Santander 2-1 EspanyolSat 24 Oct, 15:15. Recorded Sat 24 Oct, 12:15. Points per game: Racing Santander 2, Espanyol 0.8. Best odds then 2.40.Won
- Sat 24 Oct, 13:00Rayo Vallecano 0-3 ElcheSat 24 Oct, 13:00. Recorded Sat 24 Oct, 10:00. Points per game: Rayo Vallecano 2.2, Elche 1. Best odds then 1.80.Lost
- Wed 21 Oct, 19:00Levante 3-1 Athletic ClubWed 21 Oct, 19:00. Recorded Wed 21 Oct, 16:00. Points per game: Levante 2.3, Athletic Club 0.8. Best odds then 3.85.Won
- Mon 19 Oct, 20:00Getafe 1-1 Rayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 20:00. Recorded Mon 19 Oct, 17:00. Points per game: Getafe 2, Rayo Vallecano 0.9. Best odds then 3.20.Lost
Kept apart from how it did over past seasons. Changing what it looks for starts a fresh record from then on.
Its latest bets
The most recent bets from its past-seasons test, with what each condition read before kickoff.
- 17 Oct 2026Villarreal 0–0 ElchePoints per game: Villarreal 2.1, Elche 0.9Lost
- 17 Oct 2026Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff CityPoints per game: Middlesbrough 2, Cardiff City 0.6Lost
- 11 Oct 2026Real Betis 5–2 OsasunaPoints per game: Real Betis 2.2, Osasuna 0.5Won
- 10 Oct 2026FC Barcelona 3–0 GetafePoints per game: FC Barcelona 3, Getafe 1Won
- 10 Oct 2026Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham HotspurPoints per game: Manchester United 2.4, Tottenham Hotspur 0.9Lost
- 10 Oct 2026Rayo Vallecano – Athletic ClubPoints per game: Rayo Vallecano 2.2, Athletic Club 1Void
- 20 Sept 2026Villarreal 3–1 LevantePoints per game: Villarreal 2.1, Levante 0.7Won
- 20 Sept 2026Norwich City 3–4 Bolton WanderersPoints per game: Norwich City 2, Bolton Wanderers 0.3Lost
- 15 Sept 2026Rayo Vallecano 2–1 EspanyolPoints per game: Rayo Vallecano 2, Espanyol 0.8Won
- 12 Sept 2026Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoPoints per game: Real Madrid 2.5, Rayo Vallecano 0.9Won
- 31 Aug 2026FC Barcelona 5–2 Rayo VallecanoPoints per game: FC Barcelona 3, Rayo Vallecano 0.9Won
- 27 Aug 2026FC Barcelona 2–0 Athletic ClubPoints per game: FC Barcelona 3, Athletic Club 0.7Won